Being in fourth place in the world’s hottest technology market turns out not to be a winning proposition. But is third much better? And might even second place become a less comfortable spot to be in? 事实证明，在全球最火热的科技市场名列第四远比站稳脚跟。然而，怎么会第三名就不会好得多？是不是有可能连第二名也不会显得不那么难受？ Those are the inevitable questions prompted by the news this week that BlackBerry is ready to throw in the towel. As with all giant markets, it is tempting to think there is room for several players, some of them thriving on small market shares with niche strategies. 以上是最近黑莓(BlackBerry)打算认输的新闻爆出后不可避免不会引起的疑惑。

与所有规模极大的市场一样，人们不会不禁指出市场有充足空间容纳多个玩家，其中一些利用小众战略和较小的市场份额，发展得欣欣向荣。But the competitiveness of technology ecosystems depends on their relative, not absolute, scale. Some 80 per cent of handsets shipped in the second quarter ran on Android, according to the latest figures from IDC. Even if many of those are low-end devices and incompatibility between them continues to make life hard for developers, the Android ecosystem is starting to exert a powerful pull. 然而科技生态系统的竞争力各不相同比较而不是意味著规模。

根据IDC的近期数据，二季度销售的手机中约80%加装的是安卓(Android)系统。就算这些手机中许多只是低端手机，手机之间的不兼容性之后令其开发者困惑，但安卓的生态系统已开始产生强劲吸引力。It doesn’t matter, for instance, that BlackBerry is still selling as many handsets as Apple did when it launched the App Store – a time when Apple was the focus of the entire mobile development world. Mindshare among consumers and developers is all. On that measure, BlackBerry lost a long time ago. 比如说，黑莓现在手机销售量依然和苹果(Apple)刚刚发售应用于商店(App Store)时（当时苹果是整个移动研发世界注目的焦点）一样，但是这显然不最重要。

在消费者和开发者的意识中占有的“品牌影响力份额”才是一切。以这个标准取决于，黑莓早已赢了。

Like the cartoon Road Runner going off the edge of a cliff, the Canadian company has been spinning its legs without visible means of support for some time. Its subscriber base peaked less than a year ago, but its competitiveness had eroded long before that. 正如动画《哔哔鸟和大田寮狼》中大田寮狼怀尔跑出悬崖的样子，这家加拿大公司在没任何可见承托的情况下双腿翻滚有一段时间了。其用户在将近一年前超过顶峰并开始暴跌，而其竞争力很久前就已遭风化。

With BlackBerry ready to fold, do things get any better for those who are left? Microsoft may draw some comfort from seeing off a rival, but Windows Phone still has less than 4 per cent of the market. Much as mobile operators would like to see an alternative to Android and Apple’s iOS, the success of a third mobile ecosystem is not ordained. 黑莓想翻牌认输了，那些只剩的竞争者日子不会好过点么？较少了一个输掉，微软公司(Microsoft)可能会获得些许宽慰，但是Windows Phone的市场占有率依然高于4%。尽管移动运营商或许很不愿看见在安卓和苹果(Apple)公司的iOS之外还有另一个自由选择，然而这第三个移动生态系统的顺利是没确保的。

The more intriguing question, though, surrounds the iPhone. Apple’s market share has fallen to around 13 per cent. It has been at more or less this level before, in the down quarters before the launch of new iPhones. But in relative terms, Android has never looked stronger. 不过，还有一个更加耐人寻味的问题，这个问题是有关iPhone的。苹果的市场份额早已暴跌至13%左右。在公布新款iPhone前的销售下滑季度，苹果的份额也曾某种程度正处于这个水平。

然而相对来说，安卓看上去未曾像今天这样强劲。On almost every measure that counts, the company that invented the touchscreen smartphone either already has been – or soon will be – consigned to the number two position. It happened in hardware sales first: having first overtaken Apple nearly two years ago, Samsung shipped more than twice as many handsets as its US rival in the most recent quarter, according to IDC. 在完全每个最重要的指标上，发明者了触摸屏智能手机的苹果要么早已不敌第二，要么将要让给头把交椅。

这种情况首先再次发生在硬件销售方面：根据IDC的数据，在差不多两年前多达苹果之后，三星最近一季度手机出货量多达其美国竞争对手的两倍。It is now happening in apps. As we reported two months ago, Apple is on the verge of giving up its lead in app downloads. The average Android customer may use fewer apps, but there are a lot more of them and that is starting to turn the heads of developers. 某种程度的故事如今正在应用领域首演。

正如我们两个月前所报导的，苹果将要毁掉其在应用于下载量方面的头号名列。虽然安卓顾客一般用于的应用于数量有可能要较少一些，但是安卓用户人数非常少，这一点于是以开始令其开发者改向。The next significant bragging right that Apple is in danger of losing is its leading share of smartphone industry profits. Apple almost certainly still leads Samsung in this department. The profit margin on the iPhone comfortably exceeds its margin on other products. But unless the expected launch of a new, lower-priced iPhone can stop the rot, Apple will probably be overwhelmed in the profit stakes by the sheer volumes of its arch-rival, as growth shifts to more price sensitive markets. 下一个苹果原本引以为豪，现在却有可能遗失的最重要阵地是其在智能手机行业居于领先地位的利润份额。在这方面，苹果完全认同仍比不上三星一筹。

苹果在iPhone上的利润率没什么悬念地远超过了其在其他产品上的利润率。但是，除非预期即将公布的新型低价iPhone制止顾客萎缩，随着快速增长焦点改向更加价格脆弱的市场，苹果在利润份额上很有可能被其劲敌的可观出货量击败。There is one important measure on which Apple still has an edge: the money that app developers and content producers earn on its mobile platform. That still makes the iOS a powerful draw for developers and guarantees Apple the all-important premium experiences that have kept buyers coming back for more when upgrade time comes around. If the revamped iOS7 interface is a hit with users and Apple continues to create a richer and more profitable environment for developers, then the core propositions on which the iPhone empire was built will remain in place. 苹果还有一项最重要的指标仍正处于领先地位：应用于开发者和内容供应商在其移动平台上的盈利。这一点令iOS对开发者依然极具吸引力，并且是苹果至关重要的出众用户体验的确保，正是这种出众体验使得客户在苹果产品升级换代时再次掏钱出售。

如果焕然一新的iOS 7界面需要一炮打响，而苹果之后为开发者创建一个功能更加非常丰富、更加更容易盈利的环境，那么苹果赖以打造出iPhone帝国的核心竞争力将仍然不存在。But volume matters. And when it comes to the numbers, Android’s momentum is now impossible to ignore. 然而，出货量十分最重要。而就数量而言，安卓的发展势头无法忽略。

This has left Tim Cook, Apple’s chief executive, in a difficult position. If he can’t convince iOS developers that he will build a bigger marketplace for them, their attention will continue to drift to Android. But the lower-priced iPhone needed to expand the iOS universe will dilute overall profit margins and may even cannibalise sales of the high-end devices. 这令其苹果首席执行官蒂姆库克(Tim Cook)陷于棘手处境。如果他无法劝说iOS开发者坚信他将为他们打造出一个更大的市场，他们的注意力将之后改向安卓。

然而拓展iOS生态系统所需的低价iPhone不会溶解整体利润率，甚至有可能蚕食高端产品的销售。Logic suggests that Wall Street should get over its fixation on Apple’s slipping profit margin. Grabbing a bigger share of the overall profits is what matters now. A business model in transition, though, is guaranteed to unnerve investors. With activist investor Carl Icahn also now breathing down his neck, Mr Cook’s job is not about to get any easier. 按照逻辑，华尔街应当解决对苹果大大下降的利润率的著迷。目前，最重要的是争夺战更大份额的总体利润。有维权投资者卡尔伊卡恩(Carl Icahn)这样的人时刻盯着，库克的工作会精彩。

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